The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks under Measurement Error: A Proxy SVAR approach

A growing literature considers the impact of uncertainty using SVAR models that include proxies for uncertainty shocks as endogenous variables. In this paper we consider the impact of measurement error in these proxies on the estimated impulse responses. We show via a Monte-Carlo experiment that measurement error can result in attenuation bias in impulse responses. In contrast, the proxy SVAR that uses the uncertainty shock proxy as an instrument does not su¤er from this bias. Applying this latter method to the Bloom (2009) data-set results in impulse responses to uncertainty shocks that are larger in magnitude and more persistent than those obtained from a recursive SVAR.

Circulating pancreatic polypeptide concentrations predict visceral and liver fat content

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: No current biomarker can reliably predict visceral and liver fat content, both of which are risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Vagal tone has been suggested to influence regional fat deposition. Pancreatic polypeptide (PP) is secreted from the endocrine pancreas under vagal control. We investigated the utility of PP in predicting visceral and liver fat. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fasting plasma PP concentrations were measured in 104 overweight and obese subjects (46 men and 58 women). In the same subjects, total and regional adipose tissue, including total visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and total subcutaneous adipose tissue (TSAT), were measured using whole-body magnetic resonance imaging. Intrahepatocellular lipid content (IHCL) was quantified by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy. RESULTS: Fasting plasma PP concentrations positively and significantly correlated with both VAT (r = 0.57, P < .001) and IHCL (r = 0.51, P < .001), but not with TSAT (r = 0.02, P = .88). Fasting PP concentrations independently predicted VAT after controlling for age and sex. Fasting PP concentrations independently predicted IHCL after controlling for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio, homeostatic model assessment 2-insulin resistance, (HOMA2-IR) and serum concentrations of triglyceride (TG), total cholesterol (TC), and alanine aminotransferase (ALT). Fasting PP concentrations were associated with serum ALT, TG, TC, low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and blood pressure (P < .05). These associations were mediated by IHCL and/or VAT. Fasting PP and HOMA2-IR were independently significantly associated with hepatic steatosis (P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: Pancreatic polypeptide is a novel predictor of visceral and liver fat content, and thus a potential biomarker for cardiovascular risk stratification and targeted treatment of patients with ectopic fat deposition.

Effects of targeted delivery of propionate to the human colon on appetite regulation, body weight maintenance and adiposity in overweight adults.

OBJECTIVE: The colonic microbiota ferment dietary fibres, producing short chain fatty acids. Recent evidence suggests that the short chain fatty acid propionate may play an important role in appetite regulation. We hypothesised that colonic delivery of propionate would increase peptide YY (PYY) and glucagon like peptide-1 (GLP-1) secretion in humans, and reduce energy intake and weight gain in overweight adults. DESIGN: To investigate whether propionate promotes PYY and GLP-1 secretion, a primary cultured human colonic cell model was developed. To deliver propionate specifically to the colon, we developed a novel inulin-propionate ester. An acute randomised, controlled cross-over study was used to assess the effects of this inulin-propionate ester on energy intake and plasma PYY and GLP-1 concentrations. The long-term effects of inulin-propionate ester on weight gain were subsequently assessed in a randomised, controlled 24-week study involving 60 overweight adults. RESULTS: Propionate significantly stimulated the release of PYY and GLP-1 from human colonic cells. Acute ingestion of 10 g inulin-propionate ester significantly increased postprandial plasma PYY and GLP-1 and reduced energy intake. Over 24 weeks, 10 g/day inulin-propionate ester supplementation significantly reduced weight gain, intra-abdominal adipose tissue distribution, intrahepatocellular lipid content and prevented the deterioration in insulin sensitivity observed in the inulin-control group. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate for the first time that increasing colonic propionate prevents weight gain in overweight adult humans.